Continuing on the theme of the last post, I shall try to explore the ideological and organization choices that face the BJP today. It will be apparent to the readers that the list below is by no means exhaustive but merely a starting point in a much elaborate maneuvering, that is necessary to pull the party out of its rapid descent to oblivion.
The obvious first choice would be the infamous “do-nothing”strategy. Under this scheme the present organization structure would remain same, Advani, Rajnath, Jaitly, Shushma and Co. would keep their parliamentary posts. It will also mean that if any straight talking party member dared to speak their mind, they would be summarily expelled, and this exercise would continue till the party roster is brought down till the only members left are the Parliamentary Board members and their dog walkers.
But on a much serious note, this approach would also ensure that the Congress will drive the public agenda and the BJP will forever remain on a reactive mode, unable to capitalize on political opportunities. This path will also fail to create a culture of reasonably open debate, discussion and exchange of ideas, which are some of the most important components of a vibrant political outfit. It will also ensure no corrective measures are taken to create a cohesive alliance management strategy, lack of which has hurt the BJP significantly in the recent polls. Last but not the least, the status-quo will severely con-volute the already messy ideological relationship with Hidutva, which will only confuse and increase the already rampant disillusion among party rank and file.
So if not the “do nothing” what next? Another obvious trap would be to fall for the grand standing, statesman type approach of throwing away the pseudo-RSS message in favor of a pseudo-”sekoolar” agenda. This approach has been contemplated by many in the party and its supporters gained a new air of confidence after the drubbing in recent polls, especially in UP and Rajasthan. This approach has three basic problems, first of all its important to remember that political outfits almost all the time, occupy space that is available based on people’s preferences. In case of the “sekoolar” space, it is already quite crowded even if you only count the mainstream franchises like Mulayam, BSP, Paswan, Nitish and the mighty Congress, not to mention the All India Muslim League, IUML and other captive political outfits that have cropped up recently. Secondly, in Indian political system, no waves are created by standing up and giving a speech. You have to cultivate a strong panel of leaders and cadre to execute a philosophy, and that takes years if not decades. Thirdly, the strategy runs a severe risk of creating massive rift withing the base and could eventually be a catalyst for a breakup of the far right wing, which will only undercut each others base.
A third alternative is a more complex approach that hinges on unifying the Hindu vote in most of India, while being opportunistic in attracting the urban vote while implementing a new alliance strategy. A basic requirement of this approach would be to to first realize that caste plays a bigger role in politics of 2009 than religion. The BJP’s meteoric rise and the success of the Ram Janmabhoomi was partly a because of Hindu insecurities of late 80s and ealy 90s, and they no longer exist to the same level in India that is “Shining”. So to that extent the basic ideology should not be of Ashok Singhal/Praveen Togadia variety which only energizes the opposition, but of a more suble and nuanced version of culutral nationalism. It is also important to underscore the fact that BJP has no national leader to match Atal Bihari Vajpayee. In light of this, the best model for the BJP would be a some variation of the Karnataka model, where they have a strong Lingayat leader, who is sharing power with Vokkaliga and Brahmin leaders. This way they have been able to make inroads into communities that have not traditionally voted with the party. States such as UP, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra provide a perfect opportunity for such social engineering. However, this approach only works if the government is perceived by the people to deliver above average governance(aka the Modi model).
This kind of an ambitious agenda cannot be executed without a strong yet accommodate central leadership. It is imperative to re-caste the parliamentary board and create a single center of power rather than having this three way split between the Rajnath, Advani and Nagpur.
Lastly, the BJP will have to do a throrough review of its alliance philosophy. There will never be a one size fits all solution to this problem, because there are cases like Shiv-Sena, where the alliance has not lead to cannibalization of votes, and then there are cases like Naveen Patnaik, NC and TDP whose growth was at at least some expense of BJP’s base. In some states like Orrisa, Hariyana and part of UP, the BJP must put it’s foot down and try to create a long term base. In other states like Tamilnadu, where both Congress and the BJP are a sideshow to regional parties, there is no harm in striking a pre-poll alliance.
There are many additional facets to this approach in terms of agenda, message and party dicipline, but that will be for a future post, since this post already going over my preferred length.
As said before, these are not entirely conclusive packages of ideas but rather a starting point for a road map to rejuvinate a vibrant right of the center political force in India.
As always, your comments and feedback are very welcome.
Varang ji:
I dare not comment on your exhaustive discourse on BJP’s current state-of-affairs: the issues raised by you are more that what the brevity of a blog can sustain.
BJP is at cross-roads, having exhausted the political force triggered by what you refer to as the “Hindu insecurities” of the 1980s and 1990s. The absence of a unifying public agenda has reopened the divisions that existed much before Ayodhya entered into the party’s political psyche. Jaswant Singh’s expulsion may be symptomatic of the disarray within the core leadership.
Politics never follows textbook definitions, especially in a democratic setting like India. Neither do political parties. Unpleasant as it may seem, BJP may be best served if the leadership dissention within played itself out.
However, the core BJP leadership may be suffering through its overexposure to “Dilli Durbar’s” rarified atmosphere – is it time for the party’s rank-and-file cadres to help get its equilibrium back?
First of all , please accept my congratulations for writting a master piece of analysis.
The remedial measures suugested by you are both apt & pertinent.
I wish both of your writings are posted to the BJP leadeship & to the RSS.
It is not too late to re-gain the confidence of the cadre.
I am appreciative of the positive role being played by the RSS leadership, in Mr.Mohan Bhagawat, I see a proctive person & it is he who understands the gravity of situation more than any body else.
He was very clear in his message.He rightly said there is no dearth of leadership in the BJP.
I wish the incubent in President’s chair is both dynamic & decisive.The old gaurds should take a back seat & just remain a guiding force.
It should be made known that only slogans will not bring victory to the party but the hard work put in by the grass root workers & the govt which is elected by the people has to deliver which is tangible & visible.